Some people (including experienced bettors you know) may tell you that the over/under total is not something you should bet on. They may tell you that it’s too easy to lose your bet if things don’t go as expected, or that it’s just a sucker’s bet. In this article, you will learn that this is not the case at all, and that betting on the over/under total is one of the best ways to make money from sports betting.
The first thing you need to know when betting on the over/under total (or any other sports betting, for that matter) is exactly what prediction (also known as prediction or forecasting) means. Predicting means predicting or predicting a particular outcome for a particular day, at a particular time.
For example: If you are going to bet on Over/Under odds for this year’s Super Bowl, you must predict whether the game will score more or less than 50.5 points. You can’t just pick a side and say, “I’m betting on whether there will be more than 50.5 points” without justifying why you think that will happen – you have to prove your case, not just say it.
In order to win a sports bet on the over/under total, you must have a prediction system in place. You must be able to predict how many points will be scored in a game, whether it will exceed the predicted total or not.
For example: let’s say you look again at the over/under total for this year’s Super Bowl (57) and predict that 52 points will be scored. So you would bet on total more rather than less, because you reckon the total will be over 57 points.
When looking at over/under totals, take into account all data affecting the game, including injuries and weather. The higher the total in the game, the more points are expected from both teams combined, so if conditions are good, check to see if one team can play at a faster pace than the other. For example, if it is a clear day in Denver and we are looking at the Nuggets vs Nets total, we expect more points than if it is raining in Brooklyn and their opponent is Golden State.
Betting on totals is very simple: bet on a higher or lower total depending on whether you expect more or fewer points to be scored than indicated in the prediction for the game. In this article we will look at how to use the betting lines to make more informed bets on the over/under total.
When analyzing the NBA totals data from 1999-00 to 2014-15, a correlation of .88 was found between the total put up and whether or not the team exceeded the final score. This means that for every one point in a team’s final score, it can be expected to be 1.88 points above or below the posted total. For example, in the 2012-13 season, when the Denver Nuggets scored 112 points per game, their opponents averaged 106 points (112+106=218/2=109.5).
This does not mean that the total will be broken in every game, or that a team will score exactly 1.88 points more than the total (in fact, most games are within three points of the total). However, over time, betting on totals with this information in mind can make a profit. In other words, if you bet on every over/under total of 218, you will make money in the long run.
A common betting strategy is to bet on the higher total when the game is almost even (pushes), and on the lower total when it is leaning towards the total. For example, if a game is set at 209 when one team is favoured by 6 points, that team is likely to win by 6 points or less, meaning that that team’s opponent will score 212 or more points.
In this case, it is wise to bet on a higher total, because if things go right, it can lead to a win, while a lower total has a higher risk of losing money (if the total goes over 209). When the underdog is favoured to be within four points of the broken total, it is usually better to bet under, because if it wins by more than four points, the under bet will be covered.
When there is a big favourite or underdog existing among several games with identical totals, then betting that they will all go over/under will be a sensible strategy because you have a better chance of one of them going over. For example, when betting on games with totals of 215, 213 and 209, there is a chance that all three will go under, but in the long run you are likely to make money because over time one of them will go over. This is especially true in games involving multiple teams, as in this case, where there is a chance that the favourite or underdog is not good enough to win by more than four points consistently.
Over/under totals tend to reflect betting lines on point spread and, as in these cases, it is wise to bet on underdogs with a difference of four points or more (betting on favourites is a little more difficult). It is also good practice to weed out teams that have exceeded their total by 30+ points in their last 10 matches, as bettors do not seem to take this phenomenon into account. Bet on sports in Finland with bookmaker mr green.